https://www.johnmenzies.ca/blog daily 0.75 2023-09-04 https://www.johnmenzies.ca/blog/2023/8/04/average-age-of-politicians-in-power monthly 0.5 2023-08-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/c197667e-b80f-40c6-bd91-182d80117e62/1_Congressional_average_age.jpeg Blog - Little projects: Average age of American politicians - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/41e323b1-7c1d-4633-9e22-e6ea5210b6ae/3_Incumbent_election_rate.jpeg Blog - Little projects: Average age of American politicians - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/2d55d952-35f1-4dd0-86a7-c957b3303891/4_Incumbent_average_age.jpeg Blog - Little projects: Average age of American politicians - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/5e28d973-e6fc-4d6e-8b0e-2f1d592200ed/2_Partisan_average_age.jpeg Blog - Little projects: Average age of American politicians - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.johnmenzies.ca/blog/2022/9/7/little-projects-stable-diffusion-on-a-mac monthly 0.5 2022-09-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630523514-15QPKP288JNVY2Z5PQPX/00012.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630537708-X0623JL7VFQ0KUDXFK8Z/00014.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630551068-FK5Z3ZMS5L2T02VK3M27/00023.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630564056-CA0Q6NTG8FWIV3UIG5BS/00025.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630767034-NJH8TIGD92VAJXLTP65M/00069.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630767384-L6IL941X8J1BDJOKMRO7/00074.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630767947-0IIECOCAE6N9I4VVSR6A/00084.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630768281-HQ5MCPN45N63B9OXXIOE/00085.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630768877-6W3FC8MVTTBVNY1P44AZ/00086.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630769272-XXSYXSI41PBEMF09YJ55/00088.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630769797-XHDVYU9OH5TJFB87QY22/00097.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630770221-RUFAHCKDWJJK50F0PDC9/00127.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630770652-QY5TJ1YZLBSN6CYR33HI/00129.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630771094-S6XQBU8RONDPK172NDRG/00132.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630771548-H5SMBW6OZYCD1NVR1Z8Q/00137.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630772209-U5XOM2OW7Q9KUW35P2NR/00168.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630772725-0FLRRRGRVBY3IJ36K65L/00169.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630773196-QZZGDMFVL83587JCVFXT/00171.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630773687-34B5V21AHNH944XED7PT/00172.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630774165-0MASTS9XZRMLDJ9A63JH/00173.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630774658-6HXHB0FG6ENLDNZNNL2J/00174.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630775299-2Y7R9ZW6AS7KBSYH2N2M/00175.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630775801-VBOGG7IK0S8MS22N0GPD/00178.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630776273-R9IUTVTHXNDABAFZN12R/00191.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630776749-RBODNIQT4R8BINWI21Y2/00198.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630777337-6S4AF87WHCOZG1ZX3GS1/00232.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630778292-Y6VXNPH1C1MWN1P22DTO/00238.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630778798-QG6W2GSSGIXT72Z683NA/00242.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630779276-C7I9YGEGC586JAE1Q5MW/00244.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630779805-IKSOSWBBZL68WPL5R9CF/00251.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630780398-CINROQI5HY7KZ9CZ4QY8/00259.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630780878-YRZNHLPU53VBE4PCLQ8Y/00261.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630781395-2PTQJHWKWTQMPX2HHNNQ/00265.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630781871-PL4YRDW6LHYS6CG9TWZJ/00269.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630782362-O1IAZ7RA1RKHE1YXX3M2/00271.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630782883-8SIGBILOT78R2HPZ6GLB/00273.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630783411-O632MEI7I1E2713YTFTB/00275.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630783938-DWIMXX2VEJNB08IH649G/00276.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630786581-DXUDFF14YJ8HBOTPO5CW/00307.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630787059-4GM1Z0XDSOJB29GV8HL1/00312.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630787571-9OCWMU5IFURFRB8CJ3X0/00313.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630788216-6RLNEX93OQ39E00PS7UL/00315.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630788712-2Z3CCT1FNLHPCURDUZ4T/00320.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630789204-5JSY0J1U07VJ3H3UPMPH/00321.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630790221-VUKJ2O75N9K6HATXT5QA/00324.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630790940-5A8WI1ZCU3OGBGEGHUU5/00325.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630792550-WCPPZX7EHODRLHQXZURU/00350.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630793178-BSPZMQIRUJ3OBGHBWI8N/00352.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630793655-RYS54QOBSLV11ZDLIC9X/00353.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630794126-GNH1PF43P5S6RTSQME95/00354.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630794569-GN1OUJAGP7G4B1Z2JLHG/00359.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630795330-JTRNFSU3REU8UBTQQXJB/00360.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630795787-Y15I4SZLJ269O17P0PQO/00361.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1663630796247-MULNTMUAFEJ87LF38MUI/00362.png Blog - Little projects: Stable Diffusion on a Mac https://www.johnmenzies.ca/blog/2020/11/08-2019canadianelection monthly 0.5 2023-08-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1604876107999-8NFF32KTRDKIPGH9LBRZ/Slide2.JPG Blog - The 2019 Canadian Election: a quick retrospective https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1604876108103-0UIWJ4FGG4CJ5TQGJ731/Slide3.JPG Blog - The 2019 Canadian Election: a quick retrospective https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1604876108777-ZXSP3S5K5MDF4BV5EFBV/Slide4.JPG Blog - The 2019 Canadian Election: a quick retrospective https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1604875966862-MSC9PY0G2ROJ5HACRRBL/Slide7.JPG Blog - The 2019 Canadian Election: a quick retrospective https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1604875950553-B3PI820RTXXLQCXMJA47/Slide8.JPG Blog - The 2019 Canadian Election: a quick retrospective https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1604875991686-FDLHVLUD03H9PO1LRBSI/Slide9.JPG Blog - The 2019 Canadian Election: a quick retrospective https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1604875926977-HEQGYN2TTLGDFW0IBOG9/Slide6.JPG Blog - The 2019 Canadian Election: a quick retrospective https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1604876013158-FPWIYSWUYMRMNO6G0XL6/Slide10.JPG Blog - The 2019 Canadian Election: a quick retrospective https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/82cc3e14-ed88-49a4-adc0-85e0d684a8fe/2020-11-08+Canadian+2019+Election+Retrospective+v3.jpg Blog - The 2019 Canadian Election: a quick retrospective - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.johnmenzies.ca/blog/2017/12/29/an-incomprehensible-formula-the-gallagher-index-and-proportionality-in-representation monthly 0.5 2020-07-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1515277360829-GWM96F90L31XAMZ32ATQ/2018-01-06+Gallagher+Index+v3.png Blog - "An incomprehensible formula": The Gallagher index and proportionality in representation Here is a quick example that shows how the Loosemore-Hanby and Gallagher indices would be calculated. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1514553936109-8BGQZQTT61OY6CTU4E9F/2017-12-29+Gallagher+Index+v0.png Blog - "An incomprehensible formula": The Gallagher index and proportionality in representation The Gallagher index calculated for every Canadian Federal election since 1945. The chart is colour-coded by which party won the election and whether they achieved a majority or minority. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1514564813837-YGZSS1XZCBNA7U3GDZJX/Gallagher.png Blog - "An incomprehensible formula": The Gallagher index and proportionality in representation This is the formula for the Gallagher index (similar to the one Monsef held up in the House of Commons) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1514556664355-LRXGJ2S49PV7CTVY81F9/2017-12-29+Gallagher+Index+ALL+ELECTIONS+v0.png Blog - "An incomprehensible formula": The Gallagher index and proportionality in representation Here is the Gallagher index calculated for all elections since 1867. It is apparent that the index increases (on average) after the 1920's with the emergence of more political parties (e.g., the CCF, Reform, the BQ, etc.). Six elections after 1920 have indices over 15, while all elections before that were below. https://www.johnmenzies.ca/blog/2019/8/13/updated-canadian-national-polling-trends monthly 0.5 2019-08-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1565729218479-7H4DOYZRP0XWLCCAXUEX/2019-08-13+National+Time+Series.png Blog - Canadian National Polling trends heading into the 2019 election This time series of Canadian national-level polls runs from mid-2002 until August 2019 https://www.johnmenzies.ca/blog/2018/1/1/creative-destruction-the-fragmentation-and-consolidation-of-canadian-political-parties-part-2 monthly 0.5 2019-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1514845832722-SOHAW8VFI2Z196KCC4AI/Slide4.PNG Blog - Creative destruction: The fragmentation and consolidation of Canadian political parties (2/2) This plot shows the effective number of parties for each election. The top panel shows the effective number of parties based off the votes, while the bottom panel shows the effective number of parties that show up in the House of Commons. The average for each era is in the oval. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1514845778765-42OFFQ6VUBQ1FTPITXYT/2018-01-01+Gallagher+Index+v1.png Blog - Creative destruction: The fragmentation and consolidation of Canadian political parties (2/2) Each dot in this plot represents an election (they are colour-coded by dated). This plot shows that as Canadians vote for more effective parties, the effective number of parties in Parliament increases, but at a slower rate. https://www.johnmenzies.ca/blog/2017/02/01/the-long-term-increase-and-short-term-decline-of-canadian-political-parties monthly 0.5 2019-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1514629788617-VAYBYJ8T5LI014SQXBOO/2017-12-29+HoC+and+Pop+v0_Page_2.png Blog - Creative destruction: The fragmentation and consolidation of Canadian political parties (1/2) This first chart (above) shows the distribution of seats in the House of Commons after every Federal vote coloured by political party. It is easy to see the Liberal and Conservative majorities as they cross the white horizontal 50% line. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1514629837806-PJKCG7136KW35XIRUAAV/2017-12-29+HoC+and+Pop+v0_Page_3.png Blog - Creative destruction: The fragmentation and consolidation of Canadian political parties (1/2) This second chart (above) shows the distribution of votes coloured by political party). There are few cases where any political party gets over 50% of the vote (these cases are mostly when there were only two major parties from 1867-1917) https://www.johnmenzies.ca/blog/2018/01/20/the-magic-number-whats-with-the-fixation-on-40-for-a-majority monthly 0.5 2018-01-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1514671613974-UWS8IWXMS3VM9353AA3I/2017-12-29+Vote+seat+relationship+v1.png Blog - The magic number: What’s with the fixation on 40% for a majority? Each dot in this plot represents a single party's outcome in an election (e.g., in 2015, the Conservative Party won 32% of the national vote and got 29% of the seats in the HoC). This plot shows that the relationship between the national vote and seats in the HoC is convex: smaller parties are under-represented, while larger ones are over-represented. This attribute makes it easier to form majority governments since a party can win 50% of the seats with fewer than 50% of the votes. https://www.johnmenzies.ca/blog/2017/12/20/a-week-is-a-long-time-in-politics-14-years-of-canadian-polling-data monthly 0.5 2017-12-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1514483551451-53N5A9ETB9B44NPXRCUD/2017-12-28+National+Time+Series.png Blog - A week is a long time in politics: 14 years of Canadian polling data https://www.johnmenzies.ca/blog/tag/Elections monthly 0.5 https://www.johnmenzies.ca/blog/tag/Canadian+politics monthly 0.5 https://www.johnmenzies.ca/blog/tag/Time+series monthly 0.5 https://www.johnmenzies.ca/blog/tag/Historical+timeseries monthly 0.5 https://www.johnmenzies.ca/blog/tag/Political+parties monthly 0.5 https://www.johnmenzies.ca/blog/tag/Polls monthly 0.5 https://www.johnmenzies.ca/home daily 1.0 2023-03-19 https://www.johnmenzies.ca/teaching-1 daily 0.75 2019-08-29 https://www.johnmenzies.ca/contact daily 0.75 2023-09-03 https://www.johnmenzies.ca/biking daily 0.75 2019-08-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1514504378573-VI3Z72HLLFU74J466IJ5/Devon.jpg Biking A quick 3-day trip through Devon, just over 200 km https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1565717005887-QD3XQ73BSB6R4RU34YMN/Yorkshire+Dales.PNG Biking Biked from Amsterdam (via Hoek van Holland) to Bakewell for a wedding https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1514504361733-ELAOFUB3CDM02POZ36OC/ParisNantes.jpg Biking A week long trip to Nantes (one-way) down the Loire Valley, just shy of 500 km, plenty of good food and wine https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1514504339162-EYCU1U82P1M0XV2ZY059/OxParis.jpg Biking A 670 km week long trip that passes by many interesting sights (e.g., Mont St Michel, the D-Day Landing sites, Giverny, Versailles) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/599f0f81e4fcb5efe7317244/1514504479466-SU3K0SRJG8693XTAP12L/Munich.jpg Biking A very long bike trip (28 days) from Munich to Budapest and back. The route covered about 2000 km and crossed four countries